[Lion of the Tribe]

"The Bradley Effect"

The theory holds that voters have a tendency to withhold their leanings from pollsters when they plan to vote for a white candidate instead of a black one.

Simply put, there is the theory that many whites in this country talk about how liberal they are and how color blind they are when it comes to picking the country's next president but as soon as the poll booth curtain closes the mindset changes to "No way am I going to vote for a black man as president of this country"

What a statement that would make if the election is anything BUT a landslide in Obama's favor.

The talking heads here in the states feel that at this point the only chance that Obama wont majorly sweep this election is if "The Bradley Effect" really holds true to a majority of Americans.

Personally, I think Obama has this election wrapped up EASILY. It just doesnt seem possible for him not to just crush his opponent on election day.

Anyone taking bets?

One last thing, I dont really know shite about politics. I'll admit that. Because of this I cant really discuss the in depth political ideologies of either opponent but I do feel that with Obama in the White House, America will be looked at less harshly by the rest of the world. It feels awkward to be in a foreign country and be hated just for being American.

You can say "who cares what others think", but we all do. Don't fool yourselves.

[Lion of the Tribe]

Examples of "The Bradley Effect"

The notion was burnished by a series of subsequent elections in which black candidates saw solid leads shrink or vanish once voters cast their ballots. In 1983, Harold Washington escaped with a narrow win in Chicago's mayoral election after being projected a decisive victor. In 1989, Douglas Wilder held a nine-point lead on the eve of Virginia's gubernatorial election, and won by less than one percentage point. That same year, David Dinkins' 18-point lead in New York City's mayoral race evaporated in the voting booths, though he still eked out a nail-biter over Rudy Giuliani.

If McCain wins then this country poll taking citizens have alot of explaining to do........

[blaminack]

Would not the media be the cause of this? If Obama didn't win (I believe he will) the media has threatened riots. The media has pointed out that out of Democrats not Republicans that about 30% have a negative attitude towards blacks. The media has gone out of it's way to present only one side of the story... as an example Joe Biden's speech this week where he said that Obama would tested by our enemies with in the first 6 months and he will look like he is making the wrong choices but that the supporters would need to hold on. The media edited that out. I also feel that Obama will change attitudes around the world about America, for a time. I believe that his election is pre-determined. But even the media's polls only show him up by like 6%. At this time Kerry was up about 15%. Now if they said Kerry was at 15% and Obama at 6% isn't it possible that it is MUCH closer than they want?

I think that it is possible that the Media is doing this for profit's sake. They love blood and guts. What if they have pumped the hype on Obama up like this and reality is not like they want us to think? Will there be rioting in the streets?

The US Supreme Court has ruled in favor of the Sec of State of Ohio who has in her possession 200,000 suspect voter registrations... she doesn't have to validate them. They have opened up this election for fraud. She is a Democrat.

Just like the media did with Kerry they projected him as the winner before the polling places ever closed and where basically crowning him the winner, all before the votes were counted... the Democrats screamed fraud all before the election was over.

I am afraid that the political process has become a complete freaking sham.

Did any of you know that Obama is not the only black presidential candidate in the race? The media didn't tell you this. The other guy was barred from the debates by the media and had him thrown in the back of a police car last time he ran for President. This guy running is a much more viable candidate with credentials an arm long...but have you heard any of this?

Now what I am saying is that Obama is not being elected... he is being appointed. I am no conspiracy theorist in any way. I am not a Democrat, so I have nothing but honesty here... Hilary Clinton was a MUCH more legit candidate. She had the record to back her up. She had a voting record that demonstrated her views. She lead legislation that you have heard of. Have any of you heard of any Obama's accomplishments? So, how did H. Clinton fall out of graces with the media? They were falling all over them selves to build her up. What happened?

I fully and honestly believe that this is all a set up. McCain is a horrible candidate. He was being courted by the Democrats just 2 years ago trying to get him to switch sides. I don't know a single person that voted for McCain in the primaries... so why do we have a pitiful choice? He also was chosen...

I am serious about all of this. What do you think is the truth here?

[RATIONAL MOVEMENT]

it will be interesting to see what happens. It is true that the rest of the world is hoping for an Obama win!!

there was a similar scenario in the UK a couple of elections ago….when asked by pollsters folk were responding that they would be voting for the Labour party (centre left- which arguably would be seen as the Compassionate vote) but when it came to the crunch in the ballot box they voted Conservative (ie voted for personal tax cuts etc).....they have since changed the way do conduct polls and now do seem to predict results more accurately.

[Bobzyeruncle]

I believe the truth has become irrelevant in this issue.
Clinton disbanded herself, due to her scathing attacks, as has McCain.
People have realised that just by putting your opponents down, you don`t automatically raise your own chances. More important is to have a plan of what you are doing, or intend doing.
As a democrat, Clinton has not done much at all, not in NY state or anywhere else. As a lawyer she has done a lot, and has indeed become very rich and powerfull, even after her husbands exrtamarital shindigs.
I very much doubt that she would have given at least the picture of the popularity of free voting, free living people that Obama has, when you see the reception he got in Berlin (200,000 people on the streets), could anyone imagine any other pres. candidate recieving such a welcome?
As David mentioned in his post, it really is a bad image the american people are having to carry for their leaders shortcommings, even down to open hatred, simply because they are american.
Alot is obviously to do with the pressed invasion of Iraq, and the consequencial deficiept to be carried from invading a sovereign state on a false pretence. Bush held other states to ransom, with his with us or against us attitude, hence Rumanian and Polish involvement (these states have very much their own problems to deal with), and the sideline involvement on the Georgia issue has been met with world wide scepticism.
People don`t want, neither need this, and it`s showing.
If the US as a NATO member were to show as much commitment as they have to chasing their own intrests, it may have been a different story.
Whoever gets into the whitehouse, certainly will have an uphill struggle, and will have to make some unpopular decisions first off.

[ali]

I found the following interesting.
This was posted in the Daily Telegraph Barack Obama: Why I believe he should be the next President
by an American voter in response to to an article where Boris Johnson the right wing elected Tory Mayor of London gave his support to Obama. (The comments are worth reading if only to illustrate the resentment from some - mostly republicans - who seem to take great offence at the fact that europeans are expressing an opinion on the election.)

The poster was trying to illustrate the effect racism has on voter's perceptions of the two candidates.


"What if the Obamas had paraded five children across the stage, including a three month old infant and an unwed, pregnant teenage daughter?

What if John McCain was a former president of the Harvard Law Review?

What if Barack Obama finished fifth from the bottom of his graduating class?

What if McCain had only married once, and Obama was a divorcee?

What if Obama was the candidate who left his first wife after a severe disfiguring car accident, when she no longer measured up to his standards?

What if Obama met his second wife in a bar and had a long affair while he was still married?

What is Michelle Obama was the wife who not only became addicted to pain killers but also acquired them illegally through her charitable organization?

What if Cindy McCain graduated from Harvard?

What if Obama had been a member of the Keating Five?

What is McCain was a charismatic, eloquent speaker?

What if Obama couldn’t read from a teleprompter?

What if Obama was the one who had military experience that included discipline problems and a record of crashing five planes?

What if Obama was the one who was known to display publicly, on many occasions, a serious anger management problem?

What if Michelle Obama’s family had made their money from beer distribution?

What if the Obamas had adopted a white child?

You could easily add to this list. If these questions reflected reality, do you really believe the election numbers would be as close as they are?

This is what racism does. It covers up, rationalizes and minimizes the positive qualities in one candidate and emphasizes the negative qualities in another when there is a colour difference.

Educational Background:
Barack Obama
Columbia University – B.A. Political Science with a specialization in International Relations

Harvard University – Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna Cum Laude

Joseph Biden
University of Delaware – B.A. in History and B.A. in Political Science

Syracuse University College of Law – Juris Doctor

VS.

John McCain
United States Naval Academy – Class Rank 894 of 899

Sarah Palin
Hawaii Pacific University – one semester
North Idaho College – two semesters of general study
University of Idaho – two semesters of journalism
Matanuska-Susitna College – one semester
University if Idaho – three semesters – B.A. in journalism "

[blaminack]

Why does the accomplishment history end at College? Why? That is where the differences matter. Why are Obama's writings in College not out in the open? There are some speculating that he was writing some extremely Leftist stuff that is best not in the media...

EVERYONE loves to throw race in to the deal... who has a better claim of racism? Alan Keys or Barack Obama? Yeah he is the black guy that was kicked out of the debates before because the media didn't want to allow him to speak. I am sick of the racism! I am sick of the constant answer for everything being race. It is boring. Sure there are idiotic red necks not voting their usual Democrat due to race, but how many NEW voter registrations have gone in because Obama is black?

[ali]

[quote=blaminack;4859]Why does the accomplishment history end at College? Why? That is where the differences matter. Why are Obama's writings in College not out in the open? There are some speculating that he was writing some extremely Leftist stuff that is best not in the media...

.............................[quote]

Any links to this speculation?

[DubRifles]

I've heard he had a romance with la señorita C too

[Ganjah Fyah Dub]

The Electoral College will Decide who is President not the American People, so i hope people arent counting on the Vote to make it happen. Go ask Al Gore how that worked out for him if any have doubt in what i say. I do hope that Barack Obama wins just to help balance the racial conditions in america and perhaps around the world as well. There is a chance and so there is hope and where there is hope there is the real possibility of change. If i could raise 150 million a month in donations though i doubt i'd want to take a job that only pays 200k a year, just sayin